Post by Matrix on Feb 4, 2006 1:45:52 GMT -5
Extraterrestrial Visitation -
Look up in the sky! It's a bird! It's a plane! No, it's...a UFO?! For many years, the question of extraterrestrial visitation is one that has puzzled everyone from the media crazed public to the most ingenious scientists. An excerpt from the 1996 summer's sci-fi thriller, Independence Day , reflects how some of the public feel about the validity behind extraterrestrial visitation:
PRESIDENT. Sir, regardless of what you might have read in the tabloids there have never been any spacecrafts recovered by your government. Take my word for it. There is no Area 51. There is no recovered spaceship.
AIDE. Uhh... Mr. President... That's not entirely correct...
Maybe aliens have visited us in the past. But if so, it has only been on the big screen. Though many avow that they have come in contact with alien visitors, these sightings have been like a thingytail; a mixture of hoaxes, hallucinations, misinterpretations of natural phenomenon, and paranoid imagination. In fact, the probability of intelligent life outside of our planet is almost nil. Reports of extraterrestrial visitation have never been scientifically confirmed.
Because the alien topic has been exploited for all it's worth by the market, the argument for the existence of extraterrestrial visitation seems watered down. But still, many people have seriously defended the existence of UFOs through the decades. Some claim they have caught a glimpse of them. Others say the government is covering up information about aliens they have discovered. Still others go as far as to say they were abducted. However, one thing is a non-variable: the firmness of their belief. Many are enthusiastic, almost obsessed, about their interest. Some wander about in search of UFOs, while others lead normal lives. They say that they know what they saw.
The pro-UFO argument has always been one that was suspicious and inconsistent. In spite of this disorganization, the theory, like even the most separated arguments, has common threads that links everything together. The first thread is that, intelligent extraterrestrial life exists and their technology is far more advanced than our own. The second thread is that the government has supposedly found alien spacecrafts and alien bodies, and they are covering up the story by keeping critical information from us. Believers seem to think the rest of the world is hostile to this idea because others are not open-minded enough to see the truth.
Though believers firmly deny it, sightings have almost certainly been hoaxes, hallucinations, and/or misinterpretations of natural phenomenon. There are several reasons why this is true. First, ever since the beginning of the extraterrestrial hype, [many] sightings have been proven later to be hoaxes. For instance, the members of religious cults were the earliest people to claim contact with extraterrestrials (Marsh 45). The cults were based in California, and many lived near military installations in the deserts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada. They claimed that they had met the friendly crew of the spacecrafts they had seen, and many went as far as to state that they visited the alien homeworld (Marsh 45). The aliens supposedly told them of the harm that humans were causing to the universe by nuclear tests, and attempts to travel through space. Though they were highly publicized, science and technology quickly shut them down by utilizing powerful telescopes and probes (Marsh 45). They secured the fact that nearby planets and the moon could not be home world of other life forms, as the people had claimed. Because the growth of later sightings is based on these false claims, it is hard to give them much credit.
The Condon Report of 1969 provides a second reason to doubt UFO sightings. The report, officially called the "Final Report of the Scientific Study of Unidentified Flying Objects Conducted by the University of Colorado Under Contract to the United States Air Force," was led by the renowned physicist, E.U. Condon, and was the compilation of reports by 37 scientists who covered 59 sightings (Menzel, Taves 82). Sixty percent of the cases were deemed to be hoaxes, hallucinations, or misinterpretations of natural phenomenon. **However, the remaining forty percent can be explained by using information found in later studies and logic not included in the report over issues of being scientific.** Because it would be impractical to analyze all of the unidentified cases, this paper will examine four of them, organized as Cases 21, 33, 46 and 56.
In Case 21, two airport radars registered an aircraft equivalent target which flew in with a commercial flight, passed it, and then left the radar area at 200 knots (Menzel, Taves 103). The flight tower had no visual contact with a corresponding object. Though this case was filed as unidentified, it was later given to a second scientist, who concluded that the Colorado Springs "phantom aircraft" was a result of radar artifacts. More technically called, anomalous propagation, it is the "echo" of radar by reflection (Menzel, Taves 123). Though not evident at first, this case was easily explained.
Case 33 involved two teenage girls who claimed that a large glowing object had hovered nearby their rural home and several child-like figures had been seen running around (Menzel, Taves 105-106). Though not specifically mentioned in the case report, two of the witnesses were given psychological test. One girl tested to have an inclination towards borderline hallucinatory perceptual distortion. The other girl tested to be suggestible, and, therefore, she accepted her friend's delusion as her own. This case seems easy to dismiss, but the Colorado Project team did not classify this. Despite the strong evidence that this sighting was a hallucination, as a scientific study, the team could not rule out the possibility that a real sighting did occur.
Case 46 and case 56 was just as easily explained as the other two. In case 46, a couple claimed they saw a UFO, and took pictures of it. This photograph became a classic and baffled the Colorado group (Menzel, Taves 109). But later separate investigations illustrated that there were differences in witness accounts. The photographs, which had supposedly been taken at late afternoon, were later revealed by the couple as being taken in the early morning. The Colorado Project photoanalyst revised his conclusions presented in earlier reports when he found out that the photos were not authentic. Case 56, similar to case 46, was another hoax (Menzel, Taves 113). Two teenage boys claimed to have seen a disk-like object hovering in the sky. They claimed to have taken two pictures with an eight second interval in between. The pictures were later found to depict an impossible change in cloud structure for an eight second period. Similar to these two cases, many of the cases analyzed by the project were found to be obvious hoaxes.
Some of these sightings may be due to our inability to accurately document information through our visual senses (Unidentified Flying Objects ). The eye is a very weak instrument and can play many tricks on you. Take distance, for example. The distance of an object depends on the size you believe the object to be. There are many other things that distort one's perception. Reflections can create super-imposed pictures, and optical flaws in the retina can make saucer-shaped objects from points of light. Another defect, called the autokinetic effect, causes a subject to see a stationary pinpoint light "move" when he or she is in a dark environment. These illusions might led to interpretation of objects, such as stars and lights, as UFO's.
To this point, the paper has dealt with the improbability of extraterrestrial sightings, but it has still not been established that intelligent extraterrestrial life exists at all. To resolve this question, we must first understand life. Life is the collaboration of complex molecules which sustain themselves and reproduce. It progresses through a method called evolution, which in itself is a chain of mutations (Gutsch 6-7). As species evolve, many mutations are created, but most of these mutants never survive. Sometimes, though it is extremely rare, mutations live on and do better than there parents. Once this happens, they replace or live side-by-side with their parents. Also, living organisms need a tolerable environment, and if they are not provided with such an environment environment, they can not sustain life.
The probability for life can be systematically examined and narrowed down starting with stars. In our galaxy, there are billions of stars and their respective systems. Each star is different, and they can not all support life. Some burn out quickly, and others are to cold to support life. There are not many other stars similar to ours. If it is not the right temperature or if it is not stable for enough time, it will not be able to support life. Science's best estimate says 25 billion of 100 billion stars are like our sun and will be able to support life (Gutsch 41). To most people, 25 billion seems like enough to support a great deal of life. However, not all stars have planets and not all planets in these systems can support life. The planets location in reference to its star, the mass and the consequential gravitational force, its axis tilt and spin speed, and its orbit shape all affect the climate, temperature range, and atmosphere (Gutsch 45). Since life can only exist under special circumstances, life will not develop unless the conditions are exactly right.
Although the search has been greatly narrowed down, it is inevitable that in 25 billion solar systems there are a few planets that are able to support life. Even so, chances of life developing on these planets are slim. In order for life to develop on Earth, the world had to go through an complex process. From the jets of lethal gas that shot out of the new planet's interior to the combination of atoms to create amino acids, it was by pure chance timing and perfect conditions that enabled nature to create life (Menzel, Taves 200-201). Since life molecules are intricate and complicated, the chance of nature duplicating its work on Earth is almost nonexistent (Gutsch 47).
At this point, it must be realized that only intelligent life has technology, and that the existence of life is not enough to back up the UFO believer's argument. Intelligence is a recent evolutionary step (recent in perspective with the entire history of the Earth) and just one type of mutation (Gutsch 48). The chaos involved behind mutation is improbable to allow a strong chance in replicating just one small branch of evolution. Our planet has 50 billion different species living on this perfect world for life, and only one has developed intelligence (Skindrud 153). Even though it is not often discussed, it is time to realize that if intelligence is such a great tool for survival, there would be more intelligent life-forms on Earth. How can we expect other life forms to evolve into intelligent life-forms when intelligence isn't essential and is only a tiny branch in a giant picture of life? The answer is simple: we can't. Simply put, aliens without intelligence could never create technology that UFO followers currently give them credit for.
The stories that are told by believers has much to do with paranoid imagination. Before we go on let us define a few terms. In The American Heritage Dictionary , "paranoia" is defined as "a psychotic disorder marked by delusions of persecution or grandeur," and "imagination" is defined as "the formation of a mental image of something not real or present" ("Paranoia"; "Imagination"). Paranoid imagination is then the formation of a mental image of something not real or present, with the tendency to be marked by delusions of persecution or grandeur.
To see the trend of this idea, we must go back in time. In his book, Watch the Skies: A Chronicle of the Flying Saucer Myth , Peebles discusses the time period during which the alien argument started:
Both the years 1947-1952 and 1987-1992 were marked by what has been called a 'paranoid style' in politics, in which debate is replaced by 'suspiciousness and heated exaggeration'. Such times are marked by feelings of a society under siege by outside forces ('alien' forces). Events seem spinning out of control, and there is a deep suspicion as who to blame. It has been said that paranoia is the last refuge of hope" (283).
An example of this paranoia is McCarthyism, which also took place during that time (early 1950's). In the movement everyone accussed each other of being communists and many innocent people were persecuted for being communist (McCarthy ). Like McCarthyism, the flying saucer myth has a sense of suspicion and paranoia which is rooted in the characteristics of the originating era (Peebles 284).
To see if paranoid imagination is at all involved in the sightings and claims of alien UFO's, we must research the individuals who have made such contentions. It is easy to see that many people who seek UFO's or claim to see them are not stable in there own lives. In one of the Condon Report cases, a medical school student said he saw a dim shape and a pattern of light. Normally, this might have been a great story for UFO followers, but the witness was suffering from severe anxiety and almost on the verge of being mentally disturbed (Menzel, Taves 109). Similarly, a person who came to Nevada to view UFO's overdosed on sleeping pills and threatened to commit suicide by jumping off a mountain (Rothenberg). Another story is that of scientist who believed in UFOs, James E. McDonald. He was well known for his work in attempting to discredit work which argued against extraterrestrial UFO's, such as the Condon Report. In May 1971, he attempted suicide and shot himself in the head. He failed, and on June 13, when his sight and memory was partially restored, he attempted suicide again and succeeded (Peebles 193-194).
On a more general note, people see what they want to see, and believe what they want to believe. Before the dismantling of the Berlin Wall, there was a surge of sightings in Belgium (Marsh 41, 44-45). The unification of Germany, a country that had dominated them in the past, had some citizens worried. Currently, psychologists are researching the effect of social and cultural factors on this type of perception. Some experts believe people subconsciously "need" to see UFO's and therefore "actually do." Another example is the Chiles-Whitted UFO sighting, where two pilots reported seeing an object similar to a bright rocket-trail (Menzel, Taves 170-171). The flight was during the annual Delta Aquarid meteorite shower, which was a better and more probable answer to the sighting, but the pilots needed to see a spacecraft, and therefore, interpreted it as one. Here in the United States, it is notable that the book, The Bermuda Triangle was a best-seller, while The Bermuda Triangle: Solved was a complete disaster (Menzel, Taves 269). Everyone wanted to read about the dangerous and exciting Bermuda Triangle, rather than the frank truth behind The Bermuda Triangle: Solved . It is a classic example of how people believe what they want to believe.
The United States government can not be withholding information about aliens from the public. If the stories of the cover-up were true, why would the government be promoting the criticism of itself (Rothenberg)? Rachel, Nevada is the location of government's real Area 51, a restricted military installation. Many people flock to the deserts near Rachel in search of UFO's. If the government was covering up extraterrestrial UFO's and did not want to attract attention to the base, why are they putting up the fences, and restricting the area? In effect, the government would be instigating the public to be suspicious of the area. The pieces of the puzzle do not fit. The fact that UFO seekers believe that the government is withholding information shows they have mixed in some paranoid imagination in with their beliefs.
To conclude, it is true that we can never be completely sure that we won't have extraterrestrial visitors tomorrow, but for today, we be confident aliens have not come yet. There are three main reasons that extraterrestrial UFOs have only exist in the entertainment world. First, the sightings have been hoaxes, hallucinations, misinterpretations of natural phenomenon. Second, the probability of intelligent life existing elsewhere in the galaxy is slim. Lastly, paranoid imagination causes much of the sightings. Until humans have explored the farthest reaches of the galaxy, there will probably always be reports of extraterrestrial visitation, but they will only be claims. For now, people everywhere can look up into the skies and rest assured that E.T. hasn't come, and based on our knowledge, he will never come.
Look up in the sky! It's a bird! It's a plane! No, it's...a UFO?! For many years, the question of extraterrestrial visitation is one that has puzzled everyone from the media crazed public to the most ingenious scientists. An excerpt from the 1996 summer's sci-fi thriller, Independence Day , reflects how some of the public feel about the validity behind extraterrestrial visitation:
PRESIDENT. Sir, regardless of what you might have read in the tabloids there have never been any spacecrafts recovered by your government. Take my word for it. There is no Area 51. There is no recovered spaceship.
AIDE. Uhh... Mr. President... That's not entirely correct...
Maybe aliens have visited us in the past. But if so, it has only been on the big screen. Though many avow that they have come in contact with alien visitors, these sightings have been like a thingytail; a mixture of hoaxes, hallucinations, misinterpretations of natural phenomenon, and paranoid imagination. In fact, the probability of intelligent life outside of our planet is almost nil. Reports of extraterrestrial visitation have never been scientifically confirmed.
Because the alien topic has been exploited for all it's worth by the market, the argument for the existence of extraterrestrial visitation seems watered down. But still, many people have seriously defended the existence of UFOs through the decades. Some claim they have caught a glimpse of them. Others say the government is covering up information about aliens they have discovered. Still others go as far as to say they were abducted. However, one thing is a non-variable: the firmness of their belief. Many are enthusiastic, almost obsessed, about their interest. Some wander about in search of UFOs, while others lead normal lives. They say that they know what they saw.
The pro-UFO argument has always been one that was suspicious and inconsistent. In spite of this disorganization, the theory, like even the most separated arguments, has common threads that links everything together. The first thread is that, intelligent extraterrestrial life exists and their technology is far more advanced than our own. The second thread is that the government has supposedly found alien spacecrafts and alien bodies, and they are covering up the story by keeping critical information from us. Believers seem to think the rest of the world is hostile to this idea because others are not open-minded enough to see the truth.
Though believers firmly deny it, sightings have almost certainly been hoaxes, hallucinations, and/or misinterpretations of natural phenomenon. There are several reasons why this is true. First, ever since the beginning of the extraterrestrial hype, [many] sightings have been proven later to be hoaxes. For instance, the members of religious cults were the earliest people to claim contact with extraterrestrials (Marsh 45). The cults were based in California, and many lived near military installations in the deserts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada. They claimed that they had met the friendly crew of the spacecrafts they had seen, and many went as far as to state that they visited the alien homeworld (Marsh 45). The aliens supposedly told them of the harm that humans were causing to the universe by nuclear tests, and attempts to travel through space. Though they were highly publicized, science and technology quickly shut them down by utilizing powerful telescopes and probes (Marsh 45). They secured the fact that nearby planets and the moon could not be home world of other life forms, as the people had claimed. Because the growth of later sightings is based on these false claims, it is hard to give them much credit.
The Condon Report of 1969 provides a second reason to doubt UFO sightings. The report, officially called the "Final Report of the Scientific Study of Unidentified Flying Objects Conducted by the University of Colorado Under Contract to the United States Air Force," was led by the renowned physicist, E.U. Condon, and was the compilation of reports by 37 scientists who covered 59 sightings (Menzel, Taves 82). Sixty percent of the cases were deemed to be hoaxes, hallucinations, or misinterpretations of natural phenomenon. **However, the remaining forty percent can be explained by using information found in later studies and logic not included in the report over issues of being scientific.** Because it would be impractical to analyze all of the unidentified cases, this paper will examine four of them, organized as Cases 21, 33, 46 and 56.
In Case 21, two airport radars registered an aircraft equivalent target which flew in with a commercial flight, passed it, and then left the radar area at 200 knots (Menzel, Taves 103). The flight tower had no visual contact with a corresponding object. Though this case was filed as unidentified, it was later given to a second scientist, who concluded that the Colorado Springs "phantom aircraft" was a result of radar artifacts. More technically called, anomalous propagation, it is the "echo" of radar by reflection (Menzel, Taves 123). Though not evident at first, this case was easily explained.
Case 33 involved two teenage girls who claimed that a large glowing object had hovered nearby their rural home and several child-like figures had been seen running around (Menzel, Taves 105-106). Though not specifically mentioned in the case report, two of the witnesses were given psychological test. One girl tested to have an inclination towards borderline hallucinatory perceptual distortion. The other girl tested to be suggestible, and, therefore, she accepted her friend's delusion as her own. This case seems easy to dismiss, but the Colorado Project team did not classify this. Despite the strong evidence that this sighting was a hallucination, as a scientific study, the team could not rule out the possibility that a real sighting did occur.
Case 46 and case 56 was just as easily explained as the other two. In case 46, a couple claimed they saw a UFO, and took pictures of it. This photograph became a classic and baffled the Colorado group (Menzel, Taves 109). But later separate investigations illustrated that there were differences in witness accounts. The photographs, which had supposedly been taken at late afternoon, were later revealed by the couple as being taken in the early morning. The Colorado Project photoanalyst revised his conclusions presented in earlier reports when he found out that the photos were not authentic. Case 56, similar to case 46, was another hoax (Menzel, Taves 113). Two teenage boys claimed to have seen a disk-like object hovering in the sky. They claimed to have taken two pictures with an eight second interval in between. The pictures were later found to depict an impossible change in cloud structure for an eight second period. Similar to these two cases, many of the cases analyzed by the project were found to be obvious hoaxes.
Some of these sightings may be due to our inability to accurately document information through our visual senses (Unidentified Flying Objects ). The eye is a very weak instrument and can play many tricks on you. Take distance, for example. The distance of an object depends on the size you believe the object to be. There are many other things that distort one's perception. Reflections can create super-imposed pictures, and optical flaws in the retina can make saucer-shaped objects from points of light. Another defect, called the autokinetic effect, causes a subject to see a stationary pinpoint light "move" when he or she is in a dark environment. These illusions might led to interpretation of objects, such as stars and lights, as UFO's.
To this point, the paper has dealt with the improbability of extraterrestrial sightings, but it has still not been established that intelligent extraterrestrial life exists at all. To resolve this question, we must first understand life. Life is the collaboration of complex molecules which sustain themselves and reproduce. It progresses through a method called evolution, which in itself is a chain of mutations (Gutsch 6-7). As species evolve, many mutations are created, but most of these mutants never survive. Sometimes, though it is extremely rare, mutations live on and do better than there parents. Once this happens, they replace or live side-by-side with their parents. Also, living organisms need a tolerable environment, and if they are not provided with such an environment environment, they can not sustain life.
The probability for life can be systematically examined and narrowed down starting with stars. In our galaxy, there are billions of stars and their respective systems. Each star is different, and they can not all support life. Some burn out quickly, and others are to cold to support life. There are not many other stars similar to ours. If it is not the right temperature or if it is not stable for enough time, it will not be able to support life. Science's best estimate says 25 billion of 100 billion stars are like our sun and will be able to support life (Gutsch 41). To most people, 25 billion seems like enough to support a great deal of life. However, not all stars have planets and not all planets in these systems can support life. The planets location in reference to its star, the mass and the consequential gravitational force, its axis tilt and spin speed, and its orbit shape all affect the climate, temperature range, and atmosphere (Gutsch 45). Since life can only exist under special circumstances, life will not develop unless the conditions are exactly right.
Although the search has been greatly narrowed down, it is inevitable that in 25 billion solar systems there are a few planets that are able to support life. Even so, chances of life developing on these planets are slim. In order for life to develop on Earth, the world had to go through an complex process. From the jets of lethal gas that shot out of the new planet's interior to the combination of atoms to create amino acids, it was by pure chance timing and perfect conditions that enabled nature to create life (Menzel, Taves 200-201). Since life molecules are intricate and complicated, the chance of nature duplicating its work on Earth is almost nonexistent (Gutsch 47).
At this point, it must be realized that only intelligent life has technology, and that the existence of life is not enough to back up the UFO believer's argument. Intelligence is a recent evolutionary step (recent in perspective with the entire history of the Earth) and just one type of mutation (Gutsch 48). The chaos involved behind mutation is improbable to allow a strong chance in replicating just one small branch of evolution. Our planet has 50 billion different species living on this perfect world for life, and only one has developed intelligence (Skindrud 153). Even though it is not often discussed, it is time to realize that if intelligence is such a great tool for survival, there would be more intelligent life-forms on Earth. How can we expect other life forms to evolve into intelligent life-forms when intelligence isn't essential and is only a tiny branch in a giant picture of life? The answer is simple: we can't. Simply put, aliens without intelligence could never create technology that UFO followers currently give them credit for.
The stories that are told by believers has much to do with paranoid imagination. Before we go on let us define a few terms. In The American Heritage Dictionary , "paranoia" is defined as "a psychotic disorder marked by delusions of persecution or grandeur," and "imagination" is defined as "the formation of a mental image of something not real or present" ("Paranoia"; "Imagination"). Paranoid imagination is then the formation of a mental image of something not real or present, with the tendency to be marked by delusions of persecution or grandeur.
To see the trend of this idea, we must go back in time. In his book, Watch the Skies: A Chronicle of the Flying Saucer Myth , Peebles discusses the time period during which the alien argument started:
Both the years 1947-1952 and 1987-1992 were marked by what has been called a 'paranoid style' in politics, in which debate is replaced by 'suspiciousness and heated exaggeration'. Such times are marked by feelings of a society under siege by outside forces ('alien' forces). Events seem spinning out of control, and there is a deep suspicion as who to blame. It has been said that paranoia is the last refuge of hope" (283).
An example of this paranoia is McCarthyism, which also took place during that time (early 1950's). In the movement everyone accussed each other of being communists and many innocent people were persecuted for being communist (McCarthy ). Like McCarthyism, the flying saucer myth has a sense of suspicion and paranoia which is rooted in the characteristics of the originating era (Peebles 284).
To see if paranoid imagination is at all involved in the sightings and claims of alien UFO's, we must research the individuals who have made such contentions. It is easy to see that many people who seek UFO's or claim to see them are not stable in there own lives. In one of the Condon Report cases, a medical school student said he saw a dim shape and a pattern of light. Normally, this might have been a great story for UFO followers, but the witness was suffering from severe anxiety and almost on the verge of being mentally disturbed (Menzel, Taves 109). Similarly, a person who came to Nevada to view UFO's overdosed on sleeping pills and threatened to commit suicide by jumping off a mountain (Rothenberg). Another story is that of scientist who believed in UFOs, James E. McDonald. He was well known for his work in attempting to discredit work which argued against extraterrestrial UFO's, such as the Condon Report. In May 1971, he attempted suicide and shot himself in the head. He failed, and on June 13, when his sight and memory was partially restored, he attempted suicide again and succeeded (Peebles 193-194).
On a more general note, people see what they want to see, and believe what they want to believe. Before the dismantling of the Berlin Wall, there was a surge of sightings in Belgium (Marsh 41, 44-45). The unification of Germany, a country that had dominated them in the past, had some citizens worried. Currently, psychologists are researching the effect of social and cultural factors on this type of perception. Some experts believe people subconsciously "need" to see UFO's and therefore "actually do." Another example is the Chiles-Whitted UFO sighting, where two pilots reported seeing an object similar to a bright rocket-trail (Menzel, Taves 170-171). The flight was during the annual Delta Aquarid meteorite shower, which was a better and more probable answer to the sighting, but the pilots needed to see a spacecraft, and therefore, interpreted it as one. Here in the United States, it is notable that the book, The Bermuda Triangle was a best-seller, while The Bermuda Triangle: Solved was a complete disaster (Menzel, Taves 269). Everyone wanted to read about the dangerous and exciting Bermuda Triangle, rather than the frank truth behind The Bermuda Triangle: Solved . It is a classic example of how people believe what they want to believe.
The United States government can not be withholding information about aliens from the public. If the stories of the cover-up were true, why would the government be promoting the criticism of itself (Rothenberg)? Rachel, Nevada is the location of government's real Area 51, a restricted military installation. Many people flock to the deserts near Rachel in search of UFO's. If the government was covering up extraterrestrial UFO's and did not want to attract attention to the base, why are they putting up the fences, and restricting the area? In effect, the government would be instigating the public to be suspicious of the area. The pieces of the puzzle do not fit. The fact that UFO seekers believe that the government is withholding information shows they have mixed in some paranoid imagination in with their beliefs.
To conclude, it is true that we can never be completely sure that we won't have extraterrestrial visitors tomorrow, but for today, we be confident aliens have not come yet. There are three main reasons that extraterrestrial UFOs have only exist in the entertainment world. First, the sightings have been hoaxes, hallucinations, misinterpretations of natural phenomenon. Second, the probability of intelligent life existing elsewhere in the galaxy is slim. Lastly, paranoid imagination causes much of the sightings. Until humans have explored the farthest reaches of the galaxy, there will probably always be reports of extraterrestrial visitation, but they will only be claims. For now, people everywhere can look up into the skies and rest assured that E.T. hasn't come, and based on our knowledge, he will never come.
